Graziano and Fowler predict Week 2 surprises, fantasy sleepers, more: Are the Bengals legit? (2025)

One week into the 2021 NFL season and we've already seen some big surprises and exciting matchups -- perhaps none more wild than the Monday night overtime ending in Las Vegas. As we head into Week 2, we asked ESPN insiders Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler for some insight into this week's slate. Which teams should we be worried about after disappointing opening games, and will we see improvements in their second outings? What were the biggest surprises of the first week, and are they sustainable? And yes, that includes discussion about the letdown from Aaron Rodgers and the Packers on Sunday.

Our experts also share their favorite upset picks for Week 2, including a Super Bowl contender falling after a strong opener. And for fantasy managers looking to make all the right moves, Graziano and Fowler name must-start sleepers and point out potential fantasy flops. They get into all of it and cap it off with everything else they've heard this week, from contract negotiations to injury statuses.

Let's get started with our top upset alerts, but you can also jump to other big questions for Week 2.

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Upsets | Surprises | Concern
Fantasy starts | Fantasy flops
Emptying the notebook

What's your top upset pick for Week 2?

Fowler: Let's go Colts (+4) over Rams. I'm feeling confident after picking the Raiders to cover in that tragic masterpiece of a game Monday night. So this is my attempt to take the absurd hype around the Rams down a notch. The Colts have a good team and didn't show it in the opener. The offensive line will improve, and Indy's defense will learn from the loss to Seattle, when it let receivers run past it downfield. The Colts will try to eliminate the big play and make Matthew Stafford beat them with short passes, hoping he makes a mistake or two.

Graziano: I was at their game Sunday and was stunned by how bad the pass protection was. The whole point for Carson Wentz was that he was going into this perfect scenario. It was anything but that in Week 1, and the main reason was that Seattle was able to generate pressure with its front four. I trust the Colts' coaching staff to get it corrected, but as long as they're waiting for offensive tackle Eric Fisher to come back, it could be a rough go against Aaron Donald & Co.

I'm going to go with Bengals (+3) over Bears. I'm riding the wave. I think it's hard to overstate how huge Sunday's win was for Cincinnati. The Bengals blew the game late after it looked like they had it in their pocket, and throughout the overtime, you felt sure they were going to Bengal the thing away somehow. But they didn't. The Vikings were the ones that Bengaled it away, and the Bengals uncharacteristically took advantage. QB Joe Burrow is a confidence vitamin for a franchise that has struggled to find reasons for confidence for a lot of years.

Fowler: Yeah, Burrow didn't look phased in the pocket coming off the knee injury, a great sign for a franchise that needs a strong start in the worst way. I can get down with this. That defense looks mildly better. The Bears must find a way to manufacture explosive plays, or the cries for rookie quarterback Justin Fields will only increase.

Graziano: Those cries aren't going anywhere anytime soon. Matt Nagy thinks he can hold them off, but I don't think he's right.

What was the biggest surprise performance from Week 1 -- and are you buying or selling it going forward?

Graziano: The Green Bay Packers' flop was the biggest surprise to me, and I'm selling it. I think the Saints probably have a better defense than a lot of people thought they had, and I'm not about to write off Aaron Rodgers and the Pack after one game. They started two rookies on the offensive line, which is an issue they need to address. But at some point, offensive tackle David Bakhtiari will be back, and I trust Rodgers and his coaching staff to figure out whatever went wrong on offense Sunday.

Fowler: Yep, you have to think Packers will knock the rust off soon. But at the same time, this is kind of what happens when a quarterback skips offseason work for the first time in years and squabbles with the front office for months. It's hard to envision a scenario in which the bad vibes didn't at least bleed a little onto the field, unintended or not.

As for me, the biggest surprise was the Chicago Bears using Fields a bit to complement Andy Dalton. Chicago kept that under wraps for the most part. And there's no choice but to buy here, right? I'm not expecting to see less Fields at this point. His role should only grow -- from the five snaps he saw Sunday night until every snap is his. That might be Week 13. That might be Week 5 or 6. But that time will come.

Graziano: Yeah, I think it's a potentially interesting trend to watch. We saw the Niners do it with Jimmy Garoppolo and Trey Lance. We saw the Raiders use Marcus Mariota for a play Monday night. I'm curious to know how much of it is coaches wanting to confuse the defense with a different look and how much of it is them seeing an opportunity to get the rookie's feet wet without asking too much of him right out of the gate. At some point, Fields and Lance will be their teams' starting QBs. But the idea that they might both be able to contribute on the field in the meantime is a fresh one and worth monitoring.

Fowler: Yeah, that's why I think Fields might be a starter before Lance. The 49ers should be contending, and Garoppolo has a reputation as a winner in San Francisco, which has kept his $24.1 million in salary on the books for this long. So Lance can do his thing in a complementary role as the good vibes roll.

Who's a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 2?

Fowler: I'm going with Rondale Moore, WR, Cardinals (vs. MIN). The rookie will be tough to keep off the field, and the Cardinals are already scheming ways to get him the ball. He caught four passes for 68 yards on five targets in Week 1, but he's also dangerous as a run-game option when coach Kliff Kingsbury wants to think outside the box with the playcalling. Arizona's receiving room is crowded, but without a ball-dominant running back, Moore's hybrid status should be utilized often.

Graziano: That's a good one. Moore is the kind of player coaches will want to find ways to use. Those guys can be tough to count on from a fantasy perspective, and I'm not sure how much to trust Kingsbury to get his usage right every week. But when they do get Moore the ball, he's fun to watch.

My pick? Mac Jones, QB, Patriots (at NYJ). Jones looked ready on Sunday, even in a loss to Miami, and now he goes against that Jets secondary. The Jets won't put up the same kind of resistance on defense, and I think this is the week we start to get some real clarity about the pass-catcher pecking order in New England, too.

Fowler: Jones had the best debut of the rookie quarterbacks, and his decisiveness is perfect for that offense. So, he will get yards. New England's fumbling issues were concerning, though. I'm not sure how many points per game to expect out of this offense, and when it does get to the red zone, Damien Harris and the running game might take Jones' touchdowns away.

Which team should be most worried after Week 1?

Graziano: The Baltimore Ravens don't tend to worry, but I think it's OK if we worry about them. John Harbaugh is the kind of coach who can steer his team through rough patches, and I'm sure he will. But the personnel losses are just getting to be too much to handle. They felt cornerback Marcus Peters' absence on the back end of the defense when the Raiders figured out the zero-blitzes. The young running back, Ty'Son Williams (nine carries, 65 yards), ran the ball well but was a problem in pass protection. Another offensive lineman -- left guard Tyre Phillips -- went down with an injury. The Ravens are a deep team and a well-run organization, but that depth is being tested a lot earlier in the season than they surely expected it to be.

Fowler: This season does feel a little 2020 San Francisco for them. Just when you think the injuries will stop, another one pops up. Baltimore players have raved about this defense's potential as an all-timer, but the Ravens looked far from championship level last night. QB Lamar Jackson will keep Baltimore in every game, and you're right, Harbaugh's steadying presence will help. But clearly the Ravens have work to do.

I'm gonna go with the Tennessee Titans here. That was sort of a lifeless Week 1 performance that I did not expect. The Titans are a team that typically thrives off toughness, an extension of coach Mike Vrabel. But I didn't see much of that, and after years of shuffling parts on defense, I'm still not convinced they can stop passing attacks consistently. And receiver Julio Jones looks rusty after not practicing for much of the preseason.

Graziano: This was Vrabel's chief concern when I spoke with him at the Titans' camp last month: His veterans hadn't had enough time on the practice field together because so many of them were nursing injuries. Tennessee has a real opportunity to take control of the AFC South and claim it for its own while the Colts work to get things together early in the season, and losing and looking that bad in Week 1 points to potential missed opportunity.

I think Vrabel wants his team to feel urgency right out of the gate and that he's not satisfied with what he's seeing in that department. I'm watching that team closely in a tough Week 2 matchup in Seattle. An 0-2 start is certainly not out of the question, and that would be rough considering how high hopes are for this team this year.

Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop for Week 2?

Fowler: My pick is Antonio Brown, WR, Buccaneers (vs. ATL). This isn't a knock on Brown, whose game is still humming at age 33. The Bucs' fantasy outlook could be a bumpy ride from week to week because of the playmaking depth and production hinging on matchups. Mike Evans, who started slowly in Week 1, has four career 100-yard games against Atlanta, so maybe it's his week to go off.

Graziano: Yeah, maybe, but I still think there's a decent chance Brown ends up being the most productive Tampa Bay wide receiver this year. Brady loves that guy, pushed for the Patriots to sign him a couple of years ago and convinced coach Bruce Arians to bring him in even though Arians didn't want to. Brady sees a wide receiver version of himself in Brown in terms of how he approaches his craft and the way his preparation leads to on-field reliability. You may be right about this week, and Brady may well spread it around week to week, but the connection between him and AB is real. He might be the fantasy sleeper of the entire year.

For this week, I'm going to stay in the same game: Mike Davis, RB, Falcons (at TB). I might just pick the starting running back against the Bucs all year in this space. (I picked Dallas' Ezekiel Elliott last week -- he had 11 carries for 33 yards -- and it worked out.) Teams don't even try to run the ball against Tampa Bay, and they shouldn't, given how brutal defensive tackle Vita Vea and the interior of that defensive line is against opposing run games. I think there will be better days ahead for Arthur Smith's offense, but I don't expect Sunday to be one of them.

Fowler: Yeah, that Dallas game was eye-opening. The Cowboys had favorable matchups against Tampa Bay's cornerbacks and just scraped running up the middle altogether despite having a top-10 back. Davis has an uphill climb.

One more for you on the RB front: There's still concern about when Saquon Barkley will break out. That Giants offensive line needs cohesion, and Barkley was running east-west far too often in Week 1 (10 carries, 26 yards).

Let's empty your notebooks. What else are you hearing this week?

Fowler

• Browns receiver Odell Beckham Jr.'s inactive status for Week 1 was at least a mild surprise to some in Cleveland. He has looked tremendous on the practice field, and the lower-body explosion is there. It wouldn't shock if he's up in Week 2, though coach Kevin Stefanski is expected to make that call later in the week.

• The Giants aren't sleeping on Washington quarterback Taylor Heinicke, and Washington coach Ron Rivera isn't either. A team source said although Ryan Fitzpatrick was always the favorite for Washington's starting job in the preseason, Heinicke gave Rivera "something to think about" when it came to deciding on the starter based on performance. Heinicke has a multigame runway to prove he can start in the NFL. He is in the first of a two-year, $4.75 million deal, and while he might have a ceiling, Washington is intrigued by his playmaking and wants to see where this goes.

• The Saints secured cornerback Marshon Lattimore to a five-year extension but have one more contract issue looming: left tackle Terron Armstead, a 2022 free agent. I'm hearing he is set to play out the final year of his deal and hit the open market in March. Armstead is still a premier left tackle at age 30, and he can't be franchise tagged because a recent contract restructure includes voidable years. So unless the Saints come up with a massive offer commensurate with top tackles in his age and price range, they'll need to find a new edge protector next season.

• One veteran with a better chance to re-sign with his team is Chiefs safety Tyrann Mathieu. Kansas City wants to keep Mathieu in the locker room long term, but the problem is it's still tight against the cap ($3.2 million in space as of this week). With Mathieu set to hit free agency in March, this could heat up later in the season or shortly thereafter. But there's an understanding on both sides that a long-term pact is possible. Mathieu has emerged as one of Kansas City's core leaders on and off the field.

Graziano

• You know who was never concerned about Bengals receiver Ja'Marr Chase's preseason drops? Joe Burrow. The second-year quarterback went to his LSU buddy in key spots Sunday -- five catches, 101 yards, 1 TD -- but when I talked to Burrow a couple of weeks ago, he was clear that he had zero worries about Chase catching the ball. I also asked him what kind of input he'd had in the decision to draft Chase with the No. 5 overall pick, and he said this: "It wasn't my decision. I wasn't pushing it at all. But what they did do was make me feel involved in the process. They were keeping me updated about what they were thinking, and that's really all you can ask. You see a lot of people getting frustrated across the league about, you know, not feeling involved, and I was really appreciative of how they handled it." What did Burrow tell his front office when they asked his opinion on Chase? "I told them it would be a home run, obviously. He's a great, great player, a great friend that really understands the game and is going to work really hard to get to where he wants to go."

• As of Tuesday, the NFL was not concerned about the Saints' COVID-19 situation affecting the status of New Orleans' game Sunday in Carolina. As a result of a half-dozen coaches testing positive, the Saints entered the league's enhanced mitigation protocols, which means things like virtual meetings, mask requirements and increased testing of vaccinated players and staff. (The Saints' players were off Tuesday but still had to report for testing.) The coaches who tested positive are all vaccinated, which actually means there's a chance they could return in time for Sunday's game. Vaccinated players and personnel who test positive can return if they're asymptomatic, test negative twice with 24 hours in between the tests and league and team medical personnel sign off on their return. Obviously, it's a situation worth watching. If we start seeing a handful of tests come back positive in the next couple of days, there's a chance the league could look at rescheduling the game. As of now, though, it's not worried about having to do that.

• Fantasy managers who took Saquon Barkley in the first round might have to suffer through another week of disappointing production. From what I'm told, I do expect Barkley to play Thursday night against Washington -- the Giants have been listing him as a limited practice participant -- but with only three days off since his first game back from a torn ACL, he's not expected to get a full workload in this game either. Perhaps the extended time off between their Weeks 2 and 3 games will help Barkley do the remaining ramping up he needs to get back to his old self. More likely, it'll take a few weeks before we see the Barkley we remember from his electric rookie year.